Children and COVID-19
Children's vaccine timeline extended in 2022
Hello colleagues—
I have been very focused on developments regarding a COVID-19 vaccine for children. Even if adults—including our staff—are safely vaccinated, I worry that without a children’s vaccine, (1) we will still need to make significant modifications that severely impact the museum experience, and (2) parents will hesitate to visit children’s museums, thus impacting our attendance and financial recovery. Another concern is that schools may ask families to stay in “bubbles” as a condition for returning to in-person instruction before vaccines are available, and this may prevent museum visitation as well.
In just the past few days, there has been conflicting information from the pharmaceutical companies, Dr. Fauci, and the White House Coronavirus Task Force over the timeline for a children’s vaccine. While the information from February 19th is disheartening, I suspect this is the most likely scenario:
The White House announced a pushed-back timeline for children to receive COVID-19 vaccines, telling reporters at a Friday [Feb. 19th] briefing that high school students may receive vaccines in the fall, but elementary school children won't receive them until early 2022. (ABC News)
Children’s Vaccine Not Expected Until 2022
(see some good references below)
While the vaccine rollout has faced challenges, it is likely that American adults can be vaccinated by this summer. But adult vaccines cannot be used for children without additional testing because (1) their immune systems are so different (as evidenced by how different adults and children are impacted by the novel coronavirus), and (2) because the bar must be set high: since children do not get as sick as adults do from the novel coronavirus, the vaccine must cause less harm than not having one at all.
The good news is that these trials typically proceed faster with fewer participants because the vaccines have already been shown to work (so there is no need to compare to a control group that received placebos). Pharmaceutical companies roll out trials starting with older children and then proceed to younger ones as they learn more about dosages, side-effects, and efficacy. Pfizer has started clinical trials for children over 12 years old in the US, and while Moderna lags a bit behind, there is an expectation that their vaccines will be given emergency approval for use in teenagers by Fall 2021.
Pfizer expects to start trials in April for children aged 5-12 while Moderna will start enrolling children aged 6-12 next month for upcoming trials. Given this timeline, it is going to be awhile before vaccines will be approved for elementary school-aged children. And for those of us in children’s museums, it’s going to be even longer before vaccines are ready for our core pre-school audiences.
Increasing Reports of Severe Illness in Children
There are observations that there may have been an increase in severe illnesses in children during this last surge. One article (Feb. 19) reported that Bay Area doctors are concerned by a significant increase in cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) over the past two months. From a national article (Feb. 16):
“We’re now getting more of these MIS-C kids, but this time, it just seems that a higher percentage of them are really critically ill,” said Dr. Roberta DeBiasi, chief of infectious diseases at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C. (NY Times)
While the incidence of serious COVID-19 symptoms (including MIS-C) in children is very low, parents still try to avoid as many unnecessary risks as possible when it comes to their kids. And even if the probability is very low, MIS-C is so serious that it makes the risk proposition feel scary.
New Variants May Be Have A Greater Impact on Kids
As long as the coronavirus continues to spread, there will be mutations and new variants. Some of the latest variants are significantly more infectious than the original strains—some perhaps up to 70% more transmissible. Preliminary studies have sent mixed signals about children: in Israel, there was a study suggesting that the B.1.1.7 variant was impacting children (especially ages 6-9 years old) at a much higher rate, but a recent study from the U.K. did not find a significant difference.
Uncertainty continues
Early on, medical experts realized that children did not seem to get as sick nor as often as adults did. But the lack of symptoms resulted in a lack of data about the impact on children. Even now, we still don’t really understand exactly whether children have lower virus load, whether their immune system is better primed to fight the novel coronavirus, and how likely they are to pass on the virus. Many studies of reopened schools, suggest that there has been low levels of transmission in socially-distanced and masked classrooms (see studies in Sweden and Germany).
But we know that a children’s museum is intentionally designed to be the “un-classroom”—a place where kids run around from space to space wherever their own interests take them, where they are supposed to touch everything, and where children from different households can share toys and play together. I have come to accept that sacrifices, creative problem-solving, difficult decisions, and some compromises may be needed in the months ahead. However, I know children need the opportunities we provide and I am desperate to hang on to these basic design principles of our sector.
I hope this was helpful if not entirely hopeful. Please feel free to share.
Best wishes,
Carol
Additional reading:
American Academy of Pediatrics: Interim Guidance for COVID-19 Vaccinations
Children’s vaccines: New York Times, Washington Post, Vox.com